國立中興大學教學大綱
課程名稱 (中) 風險經濟學(6188)
(Eng.) Economics of Risk
開課單位 應經系
課程類別 選修 學分 3 授課教師 簡立賢
選課單位 應經系 / 碩士班 授課使用語言 中文 英文/EMI 開課學期 1122
課程簡述 本課程主要基於「預期效用假說（EUH）」前提，涵蓋相關文獻研究，說明介紹相關風險經濟課題及主要分析模型，期望選課學生對於進階效用理論如何應用有所瞭解。另外，亦著重於行為主體在面臨不同程度資訊環境下，決策內涵變化的分析與討論，以培養學生學習後續進階課程的理論基礎與畢業論文寫作時之分析能力。對於相關資訊經濟學與網路經濟學的議題，也略予介紹。並要求學生透過電影觀賞與閱讀，瞭解本課程相關經濟社會議題。
This course develops mainly based on the assumption of “expected utility hypothesis (EUH)” to introduce the related issues of economics of risk and major analytical models with related research articles. It may let course-taking students to study on the applications of advanced utility theory. Also, analysis and discussion of agents’ decision behavior under the different informative environment are included, it may help students to learn the theoretical base for advanced courses, and to train the analytical ability in thesis writing. Related issues in information economics and network economics are also introduced.Students are also required to understand economic and social issues related to this course through watching movies and reading articles.
先修課程名稱
課程含自主學習 Y
課程與核心能力關聯配比(%) 課程目標之教學方法與評量方法
課程目標 核心能力 配比(%) 教學方法 評量方法
1. 以經濟理論效用極大化目標為基礎，透過理論介紹，模型與實例說明，培養同學對於考量風險因素磨型的處理與分析，提供後續進階課程所需之理論與技術的運用能力。
2. 以案例與實證模型分析相關實例，增進對理論運用於問題解決的能力培養。
討論
講授
專題探討/製作
書面報告
口頭報告
作業
出席狀況
授課內容(單元名稱與內容、習作/每週授課、考試進度-共18週)
週次 授課內容
第1週 Icebreaking and meet (week 1)
1. Introduction: you, I, and the course
2. Grading and requirements
3. What is the rule for a world of economics? Information, symmetry, preference, and equilibrium
4. Measurement: Why do we need to know about risk? And how to manage it?
A. Find them from the difference between levels and states.
B. Elicit it with surveys and games.
C. Make it a significant construct: Theory of planned behavior and PLS-SEM: the modeling
第2週 Peace memorial day (week 2, no class)
第3週 Preparation for Discussion on a Movie related to Risk/Uncertainty (the First self-learning week. no class)
A. Students need to organize a team for finding movie(s), present the valuable points from the movie(s), and connect those points with the concepts learned from this course.
B. Prepare a PPT to present to the class in the assigned week.
C. Number of total members for each team should be no more than 3 persons.
D. Students need to provide a team member list and their candidated movies list for in the coming week.
第4週 Introduction to risk (week 4)
A.Economic environment and uncertainty
B.Difference between risk and uncertainty
C.Related factors in an uncertain environment
D.Scope of the economics of risk(uncertainty)
第5週 Fundamental decision theory (week 5)
A.Decision tree and the decision matrix
B.Payoff and regret
C.Decision principle under considering the results only
D.Decision principle with probability and result consideration
第6週 Expected utility theorem 1 (week 6)
A.The reason why the utility function
B.Axiom analysis
C.Expected utility function theorem
D.the First assignment
第7週 (SPRING BREAK）
第8週 Team presentation
The Movies related to Risk/uncertainty - some economic/social aspects
第9週 Expected utility theorem 2 (week 9)
A.What is the expected utility function
B.Optimal decision
C.Concerns in the Expected Utility Theory
第10週 Analysis on Risk behavior (week 10)
A.Risk attitude and its cost
B.Economic meaning of curvature of utility function
C.Absolute risk averse function
D.Relative risk averse function
第11週 Analysis of risk attitude 1 (week 11-12)
A.Risk attitude and its cost
B.Economic meaning of curvature of the utility function
C.Certainty equivalent and risk premium
第12週 Analysis of risk attitude 2 (week 11-12)
A.Certainty equivalent and risk premium
B.Absolute risk-averse function
C.Relative risk-averse function
第13週 Decision on the transforming conditions – speculation, risk-avoiding, and Increasing risk 1 (week 13-14)
A.Characteristics of speculation and risk-avoiding
B.Stochastic Dominance (SD, 機遇優勢，隨機優勢)
C.Definitions in expanding and increasing risk
第14週 Decision on the transforming conditions – speculation, risk-avoiding, and Increasing risk 2 (week 13-14)
A.Characteristics of speculation and risk-avoiding
B.Stochastic Dominance (SD, 機遇優勢，隨機優勢)
C.Definitions in expanding and increasing risk
D.Second assignment: student need to present a note with the expected paper(s).
第15週 Market equilibrium and uncertainty (week 15)
A.Arbitrage and speculation
B.Price uncertainty caused by speculation
C.Can a more stable price bring more welfare?
第16週 Portfolio theory 1 (week 16)
A.Portfolio allocation theory
B.Efficiency frontier
第17週 Portfolio theory 2 (week 17)
A.Mean-variance analysis (EV Analysis)
B.Optimal portfolio issues
第18週 Personal paper presentation and participation(week 18)
學習評量方式
Main parts:
Class notes for 40 pts, Personal paper presentation for 30 pts, Final group presentation for 30 pts.
第三週起每週筆記一次4分，以繳交10次為符合原則（40％），補交2分並以前一次課程為限，缺交者0分。第9週小組報告（30％）與第17週個人報告（30％）。
Deduct 2 total points for each absence without prior reasons, and will be failed after the 4th no-reason absence.
無故缺席一次扣 2分。缺席超過四次者，按照相關教務規定處理。
教科書＆參考書目(書名、作者、書局、代理商、說明)
正式教材會於修課確定後，上課時發送。

參考書
楊秉訓，2013，不確定與訊息經濟學，翰蘆圖書公司。
1.Anderson, J. R., Dillon, J. L., and Hardaker, J. B., 1977, Agricultural Decision Analysis, The Iowa State University Press.
2.Chavas, J-P, 2004, Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice, Elsevier Academic Press.
3.Hardaker, J. B., Huirne, R. B. M., and Anderson, J. R., 1997, Coping with Risk in Agriculture, CAB Internaitonal.
4.Ingersoll, Jr. J. E., 1987, Theory of Financial Decision Making, Rowman & Littlefield.
5.Mas-Colell, A., Whinston, M.D., and Green, J.R., 1995, Microeconomic Theory, the Press Syndicate of Oxford University Press.
6.Salanie, B., 1997, The Economics of Contracts: A Primer, The Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
7.Shy, Oz, 2001, The Economics of Network Industries, the Press Syndicate of University of Cambridge.
8.Varian, H.L., 1992, Microeconomic Analysis, 3rd Edition, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.
9.Wolfstetter, E., 1999, Topics in Macroeconomics: Industrial Organization, Auctions, and Incentive, the Press Syndicate of Oxford University Press.
課程教材（教師個人網址請列在本校內之網址）

課程輔導時間
TBA at the first lecture.
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