NCHU Course Outline
Course Name (中) 風險經濟學(6188)
(Eng.) Economics of Risk
Offering Dept Department of Applied Economics
Course Type Elective Credits 3 Teacher LI-HSIEN CHIEN
Department Department of Applied Economics / Graduate Language Chinese Semester 2026-SPRING
Course Description 本課程主要基於「預期效用假說（EUH）」前提，涵蓋相關文獻研究，說明介紹相關風險經濟課題及主要分析模型，期望選課學生對於進階效用理論如何應用有所瞭解。另外，亦著重於行為主體在面臨不同程度資訊環境下，決策內涵變化的分析與討論，以培養學生學習後續進階課程的理論基礎與畢業論文寫作時之分析能力。對於相關資訊經濟學與網路經濟學的議題，也略予介紹。並要求學生透過電影觀賞與閱讀，瞭解本課程相關經濟社會議題。
This course develops mainly based on the assumption of “expected utility hypothesis (EUH)” to introduce the related issues of economics of risk and major analytical models with related research articles. It may let course-taking students to study on the applications of advanced utility theory. Also, analysis and discussion of agents’ decision behavior under the different informative environment are included, it may help students to learn the theoretical base for advanced courses, and to train the analytical ability in thesis writing. Related issues in information economics and network economics are also introduced.Students are also required to understand economic and social issues related to this course through watching movies and reading articles.
Prerequisites
Relevance of Course Objectives and Core Learning Outcomes(%) Teaching and Assessment Methods for Course Objectives
Course Objectives Competency Indicators Ratio(%) Teaching Methods Assessment Methods
1. 以經濟理論效用極大化目標為基礎，透過理論介紹，模型與實例說明，培養同學對於考量風險因素磨型的處理與分析，提供後續進階課程所需之理論與技術的運用能力。
2. 以案例與實證模型分析相關實例，增進對理論運用於問題解決的能力培養。
Discussion
Lecturing
topic Discussion / Production
Written Presentation
Oral Presentation
Assignment
Attendance
Course Content and Homework/Schedule/Tests Schedule
Week Course Content
Week 1 Icebreaking and meet (week 1)
A.Introduction, Grading and requirements,
B.What is the rule for a world of economics? Information, symmetry, preference, and equilibrium
C.How to find a academic paper from the WEB?
Week 2 Measurement: Why do we need to know about risk? And how to manage it? (week 2)
A. Find them from the difference between levels and states.
B. Elicit it with surveys and games.
C. Make it a significant construct: Theory of planned behavior and PLS-SEM: the modeling
Week 3 Preparation for Discussion on a Movie related to Risk/Uncertainty (week 3)
A. Students need to find a movie/drama(影集、連續劇)/comics(漫畫)and animation(動畫)(i.e., MDCA), present the valuable points from the MCDA that you choose, and connect those points with the concepts learned from this course.
B. Prepare a PPT to present to the class in the 8th or 9th week.
C. Student needs to provide a selected MCDA list with 2-3 candidates and discuss with instructor to evaluate their availability during the class.
Week 4 Introduction to risk (week 4)
A.Economic environment and uncertainty
B.Difference between risk and uncertainty
C.Related factors in an uncertain environment
D.Scope of the economics of risk(uncertainty)
Week 5 Fundamental decision theory (week 5)
A.Decision tree and the decision matrix
B.Payoff and regret
C.Decision principle under considering the results only
D.Decision principle with probability and result consideration
E.DISCUSSION
Week 6 Expected utility theorem 1 (week 6)
A.The reason why the utility function
B.Axiom analysis
C.Expected utility function theorem
D.the First assignment
Week 7 Expected utility theorem 2 (week 9)
A.What is the expected utility function
B.Optimal decision
C.Concerns in the Expected Utility Theory
D.DISCUSSION
Week 8 Presentation 1
A MDCA related to Risk/uncertainty - some economic/social aspects
Week 9 Presentation 2
A MDCA related to Risk/uncertainty - some economic/social aspects
Week 10 Analysis on Risk behavior (week 10)
A.Risk attitude and its cost
B.Economic meaning of curvature of utility function
C.Absolute risk averse function
D.Relative risk averse function
Week 11 Analysis of risk attitude 1 (week 11)
A.Risk attitude and its cost
B.Economic meaning of curvature of the utility function
C.Certainty equivalent and risk premium
D.Absolute risk-averse function and Relative risk-averse function
E.DISCUSSION
Week 12 Decision on the transforming conditions – speculation, risk-avoiding, and Increasing risk (1) (week 12)
A.Characteristics of speculation and risk-avoiding
B.Stochastic Dominance (SD, 機遇優勢，隨機優勢)
Week 13 Decision on the transforming conditions – speculation, risk-avoiding, and Increasing risk (2) (week 13)
A.Definitions in expanding and increasing risk
B.DISCUSSION
Week 14 Market equilibrium and uncertainty (week 14)
A.Arbitrage and speculation
B.Price uncertainty caused by speculation
C.Can a more stable price bring more welfare?
Week 15 Portfolio theory (week 15)
A.Portfolio allocation theory
B.Efficiency frontier
C.Mean-variance analysis (EV Analysis)
D.Optimal portfolio issues
E.DISCUSSION
Week 16 Updated issue related with management and technology
A.Management evaluation
B.New-Technology Self-learning week(1)(week 17)
Self-learning week(2)(week 18)
self-directed
learning
Evaluation
According to the course progress, each student should choose one article from the assigned menu to read and report, which accounts for 30 points. Personal paper presentation in Week 8/9 for 40 points, Final presentation in week 17/18 for 30 points.
依照課程進度，每人由選單中選擇1篇文章進行導讀，佔30分。第9週影劇報告佔40分，第17、18週專題報告佔30分。
Deduct 2 total points for each absence without prior reasons, and will be failed after the 4th no-reason absence.
無故缺席一次扣 2分。缺席超過四次者，按照相關教務規定處理。
Textbook & other References
正式教材會於修課確定後，上課時發送。

參考書
楊秉訓，2013，不確定與訊息經濟學，翰蘆圖書公司。
1.Anderson, J. R., Dillon, J. L., and Hardaker, J. B., 1977, Agricultural Decision Analysis, The Iowa State University Press.
2.Chavas, J-P, 2004, Risk Analysis in Theory and Practice, Elsevier Academic Press.
3.Hardaker, J. B., Huirne, R. B. M., and Anderson, J. R., 1997, Coping with Risk in Agriculture, CAB Internaitonal.
4.Ingersoll, Jr. J. E., 1987, Theory of Financial Decision Making, Rowman & Littlefield.
5.Mas-Colell, A., Whinston, M.D., and Green, J.R., 1995, Microeconomic Theory, the Press Syndicate of Oxford University Press.
6.Salanie, B., 1997, The Economics of Contracts: A Primer, The Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
7.Shy, Oz, 2001, The Economics of Network Industries, the Press Syndicate of University of Cambridge.
8.Varian, H.L., 1992, Microeconomic Analysis, 3rd Edition, W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.
9.Wolfstetter, E., 1999, Topics in Macroeconomics: Industrial Organization, Auctions, and Incentive, the Press Syndicate of Oxford University Press.
Teaching Aids & Teacher's Website

Office Hours
TBA at the first lecture.
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03.Good Health and Well-Being   08.Decent Work and Economic Growth   10.Reduced Inequalities   12.Responsible Consumption   16.Peace and Justiceinclude experience courses：N
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Update Date, year/month/day：None Printed Date, year/month/day：2026 / 6 / 25
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